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The next slide. this one showed the north atlantic, from florida to the pole, with soviet ships marked in red. "the day red october sailed, captain ramius evidently posted a letter to admiral yuri ilych padorin. padorin is chief of the main political administration of their navy. we do not know what that letter said, but here we can see its results. this began to happen not four hours after that letter was opened. fifty-eight nuclear-powered submarines and twenty-eight major surface combatants all headed our way. this is a remarkable reaction in four hours. this morning we learned what their orders are. "gentlemen, these ships have been ordered to locate red october, and if necessary, to sink her." ryan paused for effect. "as you can see, the soviet surface force is here, about halfway between the european mainland and iceland. their submarines, these in particular, are all heading southwest towards the u.s. coast. please note, there is no unusual activity on the pacific side of either country--except we have information that soviet fleet ballistic missile submarines in both oceans are being recalled to port. "therefore, while we do not know exactly what captain ramius said, we can draw some conclusions from these patterns of activity. it would appear that they think he's heading in our direction. given his estimated speed as something between ten and thirty knots, he could be anywhere from here, below iceland, to here, just off our coast. you will note that in either case he has successfully avoided detection by all four of these sosus barriers--" "wait a minute. you say they have issued orders to their ships to sink one of their submarines?" "yes, mr. president." the president looked at the dci. "this is reliable information, judge?" "yes, mr. president, we believe it to be solid." "okay, dr. ryan, we're all waiting. what's this ramius fellow up to?" "mr. president, our evaluation of this intelligence data is that red october is attempting to defect to the united states." the room went very quiet for a moment. ryan could hear the whirring of the fan in the slide projector as the national security council pondered that. he held his hands on the lectern to keep them from shaking under the stare of the ten men in front of him. "that's a very interesting conclusion, doctor." the president smiled. "defend it." "mr. president, no other conclusion fits the data. the really crucial thing, of course, is the recall of their other missile boats. they've never done that before. add to that the fact that they have issued orders to sink their newest and most powerful missile sub, and that they are chasing in this direction, and one is left with the conclusion that they think she has left the reservation and is heading this way." "very well. what else could it be?" "sir, he could have told them that he's going to fire his missiles. at us, at them, the chinese, or just about anyone else." "and you don't think so?" "no, mr. president. the ss-n-20 has a range of six thousand miles. that means he could have hit any target in the northern hemisphere from the moment he left the dock. he's had six days to do that, but he has not fired. moreover, if he had threatened to launch his birds, he would have to consider the possibility that the soviets would enlist our assistance to locate and sink him. after all, if our surveillance systems detect the launch of nuclear-armed missiles in any direction, things could get very tense, very quickly.
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